We asked 17 guests who joined the Ecommerce Braintrust show in 2024 to reflect and make predictions for the year ahead.
A new year is in full swing, and we’re kicking it off with the reflections, predictions, forecasts, and insights from more than a dozen of 2024’s influential Ecommerce Braintrust guests. The podcast brings together experts from all walks of industry analysts, brand side leaders, and tech founders – operators on the forefront of what’s coming next in the industry. To sum up 2024 and preview 2025, we asked each of them two questions:
- What’s been the most impactful change/development in our industry from this year and why?
- What’s something in our industry that excites you the most for next year?
Despite their varying backgrounds, these experts put their finger on a handful of key trends facing brands, retailers, and the industry at large today. From AI to social commerce, to personalization and more, here’s what they had to say.
AI: Big Change, and Big Potential
Unsurprisingly, artificial intelligence and the rise of generative AI was a topic on everyone’s mind. In 2024, our expert panel agreed that strides made to bring the technology into the mainstream will ultimately be seen as a turning point for deeper developments to come in 2025.
“At the risk of sounding cliché, I think AI as an enabler to help brands and retailers achieve more at scale is the biggest change,” we saw this year, said Digital Shelf Institute’s Lauren Lidvak. “AI is not a strategy in and of itself, but if incorporated correctly, it can help brands skyrocket what they are already doing without having to add more resources.”
The swift adoption of generative AI was the biggest shift in 2024 observed by Microsoft’s Nate Pinkston, who saw firsthand how new tools can influence customer behavior. “Generative AI is already reshaping consumer journeys and significantly accelerating purchase pathways. For instance, customer journeys that include GenAI tools like Microsoft Copilot have grown 4x year-over-year compared to traditional search, while also reducing the consumer decision-making process from nearly 30 days to just over 20 days. We’ve seen over 13 billion chats, and improved user metrics across nearly every KPI including engagement and conversion.”
“The rapid development in automation and AI,” was the biggest change, added Ubeauty’s AJ Patel. “Having tools which can automate/predict allows leaders and their staff to focus more time on strategy.”
“The most impactful development in our industry this year has undoubtedly been the integration of Generative AI into advertising processes, revolutionizing content creation for brands,” said Amazon’s Jeff Cohen. “This technology's ability to generate complete ad assets—from live-style images to fully scripted video and audio ads—from a single ASIN has dramatically streamlined the ad creation process, offering unprecedented efficiency and creative possibilities for advertisers across all formats.”
And it’s not over. Many of the guests we spoke to say that the promise and potential of AI’s continued rise is what they find most exciting about 2025.
“The next year will redefine what we think of as Generative AI use cases and shape how it manifests in our daily lives,” said Pinkston. “I believe over the next year we will see the emergence of two styles of Gen AI, underlying tools and efficiency gains that become ingrained in everything we do, and flashier interactions directly with GenAI as assistants and creation tools for everything from creative content like images and stories to interactive experiences like virtual avatars we speak to.”
Criteo’s Mike Balabanov said: “The continued integration of AI-driven personalization in retail media excites me—it's set to revolutionize how brands connect with consumers and offer hyper-relevant experiences that drive both loyalty and measurable outcomes.”
“I'm excited about how AI is revolutionizing eCommerce by creating more personalized shopping experiences through tailored ads and dynamic creative,” said Premier Nutrition’s Alicia Ponzani.
Kiri Masters agrees AI will unlock personalization. “AI will finally bring the promise of personalized content to life. While Amazon’s Rufus isn’t that smart (yet) there are indications that the shopping assistant is surfacing personalized search results to different users. We know that this is possible! It has just been out of reach on a practical level until now. I predict "personalization at scale” will be the buzzword we’re all sick to death of by December 2025.”
Measurement’s Next Act
The way campaign performance is measured has changed in 2024. “The rapid adoption of multi-channel measurement frameworks has been transformative. They’ve enabled advertisers to better understand and optimize the incremental value of their campaigns across platforms, ultimately driving smarter investment decisions,” said Criteo’s Balabanov.
Looking ahead, incrementality is poised to change how marketers track performance. “I'm curious to see how the industry continues to wrestle with the idea of incrementality. It's notoriously hard to measure, but as we continue to live in an increasingly omnichannel space, I think the question of where my ad dollar creates meaningful impact is an important question. I don't know that we'll answer the question in 2025, but I think more brands will be asking the question,” said Analytic Index’s Zach Christiansen.
That might even make their ad dollars more efficient. “I am most excited about CPG companies wasting less money on retail media and marketing that isn't working for them through the adoption of incremental ROI as the "last mile" performance metric! I'm also excited about seeing the truly strong ad performers thrive when that performance is clearly measured,” said Clerdata’s Megan Corron.
The Rise and Rise of the Retail Media Network
Speaking of retail media networks, they had a big year. “Retail media as a concept seems to have finally hit the mainstream. It’s no longer the weird cousin in the advertising family,” said Masters. She added that Amazon is leaps ahead of everyone else – with 75% of retail media spend – and that money spent in retail networks is taking away from other budgets. “The race is on to attract properly net-new ad dollars, such as from non-endemic brands, or build truly useful opportunities to attract investment from brand advertising. Both of these require a big step up from the quick win of deploying an onsite sponsored product ad solution.”
Amazon didn’t just dominate retail media, it set the standard. “Amazon’s rapid investment in retail media capabilities has really stood out this year, particularly in areas like AMC audiences, advanced measurement, and platform development. They’re setting the standard in retail media, moving at an impressive pace, and it’s fascinating to see how other players are beginning to take notice. The ripple effect of this innovation is going to be impactful for the broader industry,” said Merchantspring’s Paul Sonneveld.
Where this goes next will likely be a push and pull of Amazon, competitors and what’s possible. “The proliferation of independent retail media networks is interesting to me – there's always an ebb and flow to the expansion and consolidation of services. The expansion makes sense when you consider retailers trying to enter a new space, I don't envy the brands trying to navigate the increasingly complex reality though,” said Christensen.
Brands Are Branching Out From Amazon
In 2024, it became clear to more brands that putting too much reliance on Amazon was a risky game. “[The biggest change was] Amazon's focus on terminating small vendors – while irrelevant for large CPG brands that carry a category-critical selection, it's a good reminder for SMBs not to put all their eggs in the (Amazon) basket. The online retailer is primarily interested in stocking the range of the most relevant brands in any given category, to ensure fast delivery and competitive prices. For 2025, I expect Amazon to pursue a more balanced profit/growth focus, which is great for all brands looking to accelerate their growth with the online retailer,” said Martin Heubel of Consulterce.
Can competitors step up? “I’m particularly excited about the increased competition from players like Shein, Temu, TikTok, and to a lesser extent, Walmart. This is creating a much more dynamic and competitive environment in the e-commerce space. I’m looking forward to seeing how Amazon responds—hopefully by making their platform more affordable and attractive to sellers. It’s likely a longer-term play, but the possibilities are exciting,” said Sonneveld.
“The rise of meaningful Amazon competition in the form of TikTok Shop, Temu, and Shien have been impactful. Amazon has long existed without new competition, beyond legacy brick and mortar like Walmart and Target. TikTok, Temu, and Shien are the first marketplaces to really cut into Amazon's market share. The swiftness of response with Amazon partnering with TikTok Shop and launching Haul to compete with Temu and Shien has been truly remarkable. This has also prompted an internal response for us to launch TikTok Shop for our top brands, coming in 2025,” said Ash McMullen of Advantice Health.
That said, brands are still going to be working the Amazon levers. “The year 2025 has a lot in store for manufacturer brands selling on Amazon. We're reaching a point of maturity in most categories that will finally move us away from focusing on the rudimentary basics to more advanced strategies for success on and with the online retailer,” said Heubel. Heubel sees the most potential in Amazon perfecting its grocery business. “After years of experimentation, Amazon still hasn't figured out the whole Fresh business model. It will be interesting to see if Amazon is willing to go down this route or if its leadership will try to undertake further M&A to get out of the grocery dilemma that has swallowed up a lot of dollars but so far has failed to deliver the right return of investment.”
Amazon is offering new products to entice brands. “What excites me most for the coming year is seeing how our partners will leverage and integrate the plethora of new features released by Amazon Ads in late 2024 into their advertising strategies. It will be fascinating to observe how brands adapt to and maximize the potential of tools like AMC Audiences for Sponsored Ads, as they experiment and develop innovative approaches to reach new audiences and enhance campaign effectiveness,” said Amazon’s Cohen.
All told, 2025 is set to be a pivotal year for the industry as new measurement methodologies, media networks, and foundational technologies like AI sharpen and evolve. Who brands partner with, and where they prioritize their spend across the ever-evolving retail landscape, is just one piece of the puzzle. We’re looking forward to watching even more trends develop, so stay tuned for more expert predictions on the Ecommerce Braintrust in the year ahead.
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